The Synthetic Balance Sheet
The Synthetic Balance Sheet (SBS) is SkaFld's value-quantification instrument. It has two headline scores, each 0 to 100: the decision score and the Executability Score. An optional USD valuation and a risk layer sit underneath. No gut feel, no stories without numbers.
Balance = 50 + ( mean assets − mean liabilities ) ÷ 2
The score a decision is made on. A line with no evidence is not assessed, never scored as zero.
Value = ( IV − IC ) × Certainty + ( FV − FC ) × Probability × Discount
In US dollars, attached only when real figures exist. It never stands in for the decision score.
An asset. Revenue impact, cost savings, risk mitigation, and signal value the solution creates now.
A liability. Capital, implementation, change management, and opportunity cost required to launch.
An asset. Market expansion, platform effects, option value, and durable capabilities over time.
A liability. Technical debt, maintenance, obsolescence, and lock-in risk down the line.
Each risk line has odds, severity, expected loss, worst-case loss and a holder: avoided, mitigated, transferred, insured, reserved or carried by investors. Premiums and reserves count as Immediate Cost. Expected retained loss counts as Future Cost. The gate also checks that the worst-case loss investors keep fits what they can carry.
The balance answers whether it is worth it. The Executability Score answers whether we can act on it: four factors (Immediate Value, Resources, Path to Scale, Risk Mitigation) at 25 points each, with points lost only for missing evidence. It drives the Decision Gate.
- 80-100
- Execute
- 60-79
- Refine
- 40-59
- Rethink
- 0-39
- Scrap
One standard, four divisions
Every division decides on this one standard. The gate routes each initiative to exactly one division, and that division makes the call.
- Which ideas we build ourselves.
- When a venture passes the gate and gets capital and a team.
- When to keep going, pivot or stop.
- Whether to invest, and on what terms.
- Whether to acquire a company or a site.
- Whether a development pencils.
- Whether a deal fits an impact thesis.
- How much risk investors keep, and how much is covered.
- Which client engagements we take.
- The scope, team and budget for each one.
- When work moves from pilot to production.
- When ownership moves to the client's team.
- Which public problems become challenges.
- How entries are judged, and who wins.
- Which winners move on to a pilot, an investment or a build.
- Which schools, cohorts and partners join a program.
